The bid launched this Thursday by the Otis Group for 49.99% of the capital it does not own in its Spanish subsidiary is 7 euros per share ?? 6,926 discounting the confirmed dividend for October of 0.074 euros per share ??. In total, the operation would close at around 1,600 million euros, according to the data provided to the CNMV.
“Likewise, the offer price will be reduced by the gross amount per share of any distribution of dividends, reserves or issue or distribution premium from the date of this announcement,” notes the Bankinter team of analysts.
If the requirements are met, Otis will exercise the forced sale at the same price as the offer. In the event that the conditions required for a forced sale are not met, but reach a minimum participation of 75%, it will promote the exclusion of negotiation. “If neither of the two previous situations is met, Otis will promote a new exclusion offer as soon as possible,” they add in Bankinter.
The price of the exclusion offer represents a premium of 30.8% over the closing of the stock market the day before and 4.5% with respect to the valuation of the analysts, which reached 6.7 euros, on average. The shares of the elevator company rose to 34.4% at the opening of the session on Thursday, reaching 7.19 euros in this bullish peak.
The premium offered by Otis is practically in line with the average target price of the group of experts that follows the Zardoya price, falling below two of the last known valuations within this consensus, before the operation was known.
The 7 euros of the takeover bid is almost 8% away from the target price of 7.6 euros calculated by Caixabank BPI and up to 18% below the 8.58 euros of Alphavalue / Baader.
This same Thursday, different analysis houses such as GVC Gaesco, Oddo BHF or JB Capital have accepted the price of the exclusion bid, according to Bloomberg. “This is good news, since the offer is in cash and represents a premium of 25% over the average price of 2021, and 3.5% over the average for 2019,” explain Bankinter experts, who consider that ” The risk would be to stay in a very illiquid share , in which Otis already has control and which could later be excluded (Otis already owns 50.01% of the capital of Zardoya Otis, 50.07% of the voting rights ) “.
The exclusion of Zardoya from the Spanish stock market would occur after losing around a quarter of its value in the last five years, and it joins the recent ones of Euskaltel, after the acquisition of MásMóvil, and that of Codere due to liquidation.
The manufacturer earned 140 million euros in 2020, a figure similar to 2019, thanks to the weight of maintenance contracts and other services in its business (about 70% of revenues). Analysts project that this 2021 will achieve a net profit of 145 million and a growth of 25% for 2024 (see graph). Zardoya’s earnings topped $ 200 million a decade ago.
The offer would imply an implicit PER (times that the profit is included in the share price) according to the profit forecast for 2021 of 22.6 times, with the average multiplier of the last 10 years being around 24. “Therefore If the market price exceeds the price of the offer, we would sell partially. Otherwise, we would wait for its presentation and we would go to the offer, “Bankinter recommends.
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