US crude rises more than 2% this Monday, reaching a seven-year high of $ 81.50 per barrel, accumulating an increase since the end of last October that already exceeds 120%. Oil stocks rose at the same time as the price of oil. Occidental Petroleum and Marathon Oil advanced more than 2%.
If this streak continues, it will be the first time that US oil has closed above $ 80 a barrel since October 2014, when the shale revolution triggered a multi-year slump in fossil fuel prices.
The pace of economic recovery after the pandemic combined with the arrival of the cold has triggered energy demand, at a time when pressure on governments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy has slowed investment in oil projects.
At the same time, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC +, have refrained from increasing supply even as prices maintain their upward pressure.
Crude is now on track to outperform copper this year for its highest margin since 2002 and exceeds the commodity index for its largest gap in more than a decade, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Like oil, natural gas is also far outperforming other commodities, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Copper prices are 10% below May’s record, while rallies in other materials such as zinc and lead have largely stalled. Some metals have fallen on fears that growth will weaken in China, the world’s largest consumer of raw materials and the world’s largest importer of oil.
The economic consequences of the impending collapse of Evergrande Group could magnify the slowdown caused by the Delta variant. This is because the Chinese economy relies heavily on property developers for growth and jobs.
On the other hand, semiconductor shortages, production bottlenecks and the effects of the pandemic led Goldman Sachs to lower its forecasts for the US economy in 2021 and 2022.
The reduction of the government’s fiscal support and “a delayed recovery by consumer spending” are the “two challenges” for growth in the medium term, as justified by the bank’s analysts in a note to clients.
US GDP is now expanding at a rate of 5.6% this year and 4% in 2022. This is lower than previous forecasts of 5.7% and 4.4%, respectively.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last month lowered its US growth forecast to 6% for this year, and the economy is expected to expand 3.9% in 2022.
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