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The Community of Madrid will vote on May 4 in surprise elections. The motion of censure of PSOE and Citizens in Murcia became a political earthquake when the Madrid president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso , broke her Government with Cs and expressly called a regional election that the justice ratified.

The aftershocks of the earthquake reached the central executive with the resignation of the vice president and leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias , to fight with Ayuso for the presidency of the community.

The average of all the electoral polls published since last March 10, the date of the announcement of the elections, reflects that the PP would obtain a comfortable victory, again beating the PSOE, which was the most voted force in the 2019 elections.

However, Ayuso would not reach an absolute majority and would depend on the support, at least, of the extreme right of Vox.

In parallel, the bad moment that Ciudadanos is going through can leave them on the razor’s edge, since the minimum barrier to access the Madrid Assembly is 5% of the votes, a percentage that right now is not insured.

The calculations made by EL PERIÓDICO based on a formula used by Ivan Serrano , researcher at the IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute) of the UOC, correspond to the weighted average of the main polls published.

The weighting is carried out, as in other formulas of this type, according to the size of the sample larger, the greater the value – and the date of the field work – the more recent, the more significant.

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